🚍 Are Windsor decision makers gambling with public transit?

On January 20, 2020, Windsor City Council Approved Its New Transit Master Plan: But some critical questions remain unanswered ...    This week we're highlighting some troubling points about the new transit plan you likely didn't see reported on, nor questioned by local media.

1. Why does the Transit Master Plan state there's no need for bus routes to County Road 42 if no hospital is built?  Since the July 15, 2015 rural hospital site announcement, the public were repeatedly told the development of the Sandwich South lands is necessary to accommodate the city's future anticipated population and job growth.

"Note that there are multiple routes that are proposed to run to the new hospital site in southeast Windsor. These routes are contingent on the construction of the new hospital and would not be implemented to extend to this area if the hospital does not get built." -- More Than Transit, page 39

Yet according to the City's own research, Windsor's population growth expectations are very modest, at best.  The City acknowledges this trend may be the result of an "aging demographic." The Transit Master Plan's population growth projections have changed very little since 2018, when the Sandwich South Secondary Plan and hospital zoning were approved by Windsor City Council:

August 2018: Population growth projections presented to Windsor City Council:

January 2020: Transit Master Plan:

The development of Sandwich South epitomizes what's wrong with urban sprawl, especially when population growth is sluggish: low-density development is not conducive to cost-efficient public transit.   According to Transit Windsor, the residential area surrounding the proposed new hospital site is one of three planned new Alternative Service Delivery (ASD) areas.

The planned development area will be: low-density, which is anticipated to result in low ridership demand; and/or located on the fringe of the urban area.        -- More Than Transit, page 49

What this means: County Road 42 will only need public transit service IF the hospital is built there. If the hospital is not built on County Road 42, Transit Windsor anticipates the area will be so sparsely populated that it doesn't warrant regular bus service. And the anticipated ridership from the area beyond County Road 42 is already expected to be too low for fixed public transit routes.

What is Alternative Service Delivery? ASD is a new service delivery model to Windsor. Residents will be provided with "on-demand" instead of regular public transit service: ASD service can be provided through a variety of methods. Sedans, minivans, and shuttle buses are usually vehicles that come to mind but even full-sized buses can be used to provide ASD service. ASD vehicles can provide door-to-door service or have predetermined stops where users have to walk to be picked up and/or a limited number of pre-determined destinations – or do a combination of both.          -- More Than Transit, page 49

Is transit ridership expected to be low because of the low density of the new development? Or will driving simply be more convenient (or absolutely necessary), given the distance of Sandwich South from the rest of Windsor? If population growth is weak and the location so remote, one wonders why there is such an urgency to embark on Windsor's 1,000 acre (400 hectare) urban expansion.

2. If international students (a transient population) are propelling Windsor's population growth, how does this justify infrastructure and development costs to local taxpayers for City expansion into Sandwich South (currently farmland)? The Transit Master Plan notes (on page 14) that the number of student fare trips exceeds the number of adult fare trips. This is partly because of a recent influx of international post-secondary students who do not have cars.

If it weren't for the international students, can Windsor justify its stated need to develop farmland to create additional permanent housing? Creating additional housing options (e.g. through secondary units in existing neighbourhoods close to St. Clair College and the University of Windsor) would be efficient and cost-effective to accommodate the ebb and flow of the international student population. And it would lead to more active transportation too: walking, cycling and public transit use.

3. What will be the day-to-day time management consequences for Transit Windsor riders of this route expansion to a sparsely populated, future exurb?

An infographic in More Than Transit shows the system-wide goal for its minimum hours of service: It doesn't indicate trip travel times. There's no information about transit service to and from the future hospital location during the overnight hours.

The bus service hours cited in the new Transit Master Plan will not be helpful to patients seeking emergency room care after midnight.

4. How much will efficient and effective public transit service to County Road 42 cost? Will Windsor taxpayers appreciate underwriting this expansion - especially those who only use private vehicles for transportation? The Transit Master Plan acknowledges that not all cost impacts are known. Yet the Plan candidly states that substantial funding commitments by federal, provincial, and local governments will be required to make it feasible. Can anyone honestly say that transit service to a faraway hospital site surrounded by an extremely low density neighbourhood is a wise public investment, especially when other site options exist?

5.  Who wants to be in a vehicle on a highway without a seatbelt? E.C. Row Expressway wasn't designed for regular use by public transit buses. We'd like to know what safety measures were considered when deciding to start routing buses on the expressway. What will happen to riders, especially those standing - an increasingly common sight on Transit Windsor buses - in the event of a collision at 100km/hour?

6. Do local officials ever use public transit?   Is there anyone among all of the decision makers who anticipates using Transit Windsor to travel to the new single site acute care hospital? We suspect the answer is no. It's unlikely that thousands of Windsor public transit riders will be happy with the extra bus transfers, transit times and costs, when they need to access essential hospital-based healthcare services at CR42 --- if it becomes Windsor-Essex's only acute care hospital. If these and other essential questions go unanswered, how can Windsor residents be confident that local decision makers are not just rolling the dice with public money - betting on a future that the City's own population and job growth data doesn't support? It's not too late to re-evaluate this plan.

In their own words: Members of our community continue to comment on the issues

"I care about our community. The City has made too many poor decisions in the past. Let this new hospital location not be one of them. Once it's a done deal we can't unring that bell."

"Building a hospital and sub-dividing 900 acres of annexed productive farmland/greenspace goes against sound climate change planning. URBAN DENSITY PRESENTS A GREENER WAY TO LIVE, BUILD UP NOT OUT. City mayors are directly accountable to their constituents for their decisions, and are more nimble than state and national elected officials to take decisive action. What our cities do individually and in unison to address climate change can set the agenda for communities and governments everywhere. As a Farmer in Essex County it pains me to my core to watch farmland gobbled up throughout Essex/Windsor at an alarming rate because of unchecked urban sprawl when does it stop? At this critical crossroads in time, we need the ideas that cities and towns can create more than ever. We need our leaders to be innovated in their actions what we don't need is more of the same 1950's urban sprawl thinking. "

"Keep up the fight! Right to the end!! There are other suitable sites within the city core. This is an example of oppressive abuse of power and complete mismanagement. We appreciate your tenacity and advocacy more than you know!! It’s not a done deal. Don’t back down!!! Thank you for all you do on behalf of our community."

"Housekeeping is soooo big when it comes to infections yet housekeeping is always the first to go during cutbacks."

"The GM site would have been so much better."

"An urgent care clinic downtown is not nearly a replacement for a hospital with over 500 beds and staff of over 5000 with 100’s passing through it’s doors daily."

"A new low density residential neighbourhood beyond the city’s airport will ultimately become unsustainable sprawl further hollowing out Windsor’s core."

"People that understand that we must reduce carbon emissions that threaten earth's climate, who understand that we can no longer design cities around cars, that we can’t afford to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to fix roads and people who don’t want to use swaths of valuable land for parking. These are all factors that go against building the proposed megahospital on the other side of the airport."